We have the variables and the models, why do we still get it wrong?

In the news today is the $70 million new speedway venue that was last month deemed "unsafe" for drivers, because of the “unprecedented rainfall”.

Unfortunately, while it is unprecedented, it is not unexpected.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-06-02/new-sydney-speedway-track-deemed-unsafe-to-to-rain/101118178

Step 0:

Learn how to use the model (this currently has 75 views), which is disappointing for how useful it is.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3doqEGOV-P8

Step 1:

Read about the tool and the resources available

https://www.climatechangeinaustralia.gov.au/en/projects/esci/

Step 2:

Let’s go to the climate data:

https://www.climatechangeinaustralia.gov.au/en/projects/esci/esci-climate-data/

Step 3:

Select Rainfall as the interested variable, with an Intensity with 2-year average recurrence interval (ARI)  - selecting for larger will, in my opinion, skew the data.

Select a Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) of 4.5. In my opinion, there’s little value in planning to live in an RCP 8.5 world (this is the hell on earth outcome).

I used the Warm Wet Model, with a 2020-2039 temporal period (selecting the resolution to Autumn).

This returns the following view... It seems like we should start planning for worse and more frequent flooding. (Check the model for similar outcomes for Fire Danger and Maximum Temperatures)